Oct. 1, 2010 AM Update

This has really turned out to be a somewhat unconventional Friday trading session. Instead of plateaus and intermittent profit-taking, there has continued to be a huge surge to the upside.

We opened fairly high above yesterday's low (>90 pips). Which was a good sign this uptrend was to continue into today. There was been a strict adherence to the 100 EMA as far as touches and bounces are concerned. If you went long at the open @ "113.884" you'd be up >35 pips (3x + our 10 pips daily TP). Remember, moving averages are the basic, banal math. Don't bet against the math, or you'll get burned. If PA is trending above a moving average, it will continue to do so until it crosses below.

All in all, this has been a great Friday with lots of volume. I wouldn't stay in any trades over the weekend, as there is a lot of uncertainty concerning austerity measures both in America (QE 2.0, credit unions being bailed out) and Europe at the moment. You really don't want to be caught in a trade if there is a huge drop over the weekend.

Good luck trading and have a great weekend everyone!

Summary

- Should have gone long @ open "113.884" and played the 100 EMA. Good for 10+ pips.

- Always be mindful of the moving averages. Where is PA in relation to an individual moving average (MA). This is how we gauge trends and trend strength.

- Take a break for the weekend. Open trades are susceptible to huge weekend swings that can hit SLs and ruin an otherwise excellent trading week.

9/30/2010 Mid-Noon Update

PA/volume has slowed down some, but not enough to prevent new trade opportunities! I have been away since late morning, but the 100 EMA break @ 1 AM proved to be worth upto 30 pips (if you are off my recommended 10 pip TPs). I wouldn't recommend trading the mid-afternoon session, as PA has essentially plateaued and won't be going anywhere until later tonight. Watch for a breakout move to test yesterday's high of "114.176" tonight.

Summary:
Detailed Long entry point @ "113.559" and break of 100 EMA

Market has plateaued, recommend a no-trade until tonight

Watch for breakout "Friday" moves later tonight into tomorrow morning. Expecting a test/break of yesterday's high of "114.176"

09/30/2010 AM Update

PA opened very close to yesterday's high (<10 pips). In my previous post, I was anticipating a test and break of the 100 & 300 EMAs around the next open (e.g. TODAY). It took one test and mild rebound before it broke the 100 EMA and then flew through the 300 EMA as well with no major resistance.

My entry was slightly below the 100 EMA above the FPV @ 113.929 where I had my limit order from yesterday. I normally don't try to "ride the wave" throughout the move, and settle for the first major pivot point to get out, in this case S1 @ 113.652. Even though PA continued downward, matching the previous magnitude when I traded, we all must sleep.

For those pulling an all-nighter, you would have seen PA fly past yesterday's low, and hitting MS4 for a total of about 90 pips. PA has since rebounded off the MS4 and is piercing the 100 & 300 EMAs to the upside. Currently looks like a good long opportunity, but I'm going back to bed, done for today ;)


Summmary

Short signal @ 113.929 with PA passing through 100 EMA significantly = 25 pips TP @ S1 "113.652"

New Buy signal @ 5:30 AM, PA passing through 100 & 300 EMAs. Look for FPV and Open as resistance points.

Good Luck to those that trade this.

New explanation for blog

Hey guys, someone commented earlier that must have stumbled onto this blog that it was confusing. Essentially, I trade the FX market (Foreign Currency Exchange). The majority of my postings have to do with either shorting or buying the EUR/JPY pair.

I utilize a MT4 client linked with my broker, InterbankFX in order to place trades. I use a pretty simple (more simple than some of my other charts) setup with a 13,100 and 300 EMA to gauge trend strengths on the 5 minute chart. In addition to the EMAs, I have a "high-low" indicator that tracks high-probability support and resistance lines to compliment moves along the EMAs.

Finally, I have a "scalping" indicator script on my candles that models PA swings up and down irrespective of the EMAs.

Lately I've just been doing chart commentaries until I get more followers. I don't want to waste my time posting trades if no one is viewing them to offer their sentiments on market strengths.

Thanks for all the views and comments guys!

09/29/2010 EURJPY 5m Update

PA opened 10 pips under 09/28 high, and immediately tested and broke @ 8:15PM (PA had been above 100 & 300 EMAs since earlier in morning from 9AM). Tested MR2 pivot and retreated quickly down to 100 EMA; flirted till 12:35AM and broke below 100 EMA and past MR1. Broke 300 EMA and tested FPV; moved down for 30 pips. Rebounded off FPV to break up through 100 & 300 EMAs, past open to test yesterday's high of "114.003". Rebounded again past 100 & 300 EMAs to test FPV once again. Past 100 EMA move for 20 pips. Rebounded off FPV to break 100 & 300 EMAs to test Open, flirted with 100 & 300 EMAS (no significant breaks). PA guided by 300 EMA currently, ranging between yesterday's high "114.003" and 300 EMA value. So far, 4 tests of yesterday's high have rebounded downwards. Expecting significant break of 300 EMA before Close. Watch for break of FPV "113.525" to confirm downtrend.

09/28/2010 EUR/JPY 5m Day's Activity and Next Open Impressions

Activity focused around 300 EMA on 5m chart. Opened below, -22 pips, and rebounded for 19 pips @ 9pm. Broke up @ 10:50pm for 13 pips. Broke down @ 1:30am, stuttered @ 300 EMA, and continued down for 68 pips. 100 EMA & 300 EMA had been closely entwined until previous break down. Break up on 100 EMA @ 2:25 AM for 36 pips. Rebounded up twice through 300 EMA on the 100 EMA. Broke down on 100 EMA @ 10:30AM for spike down of 34 pips, failed to close significantly far past 100 EMA ( <20 pips on 6 candles, and played on previous day's low). After spike and 100 EMA flirt, broke 100 & 300 EMA for 70 pips. Currently, PA still above 100 & 300 EMAs. Expecting test @ next open (8:00PM EST).

MetaTrader 4 Chart Format and Indicator Explanations.

List of Indicators included in chart:

• ichimoko cloud (standard settings)
• "True" MACD, email me for indicator
• Stochastics (5,3,3)
• "Trend" indicator (confluence of MA's weighted with average price action direction)
• Array of various moving averages
• Pivot Points
• Forex Factory News Calendar Plug-in
• THV display plugin